Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
